Global consensus forecasts on real-world events.
Forecast Index aggregates individual probabilities into calibrated consensus. Measure your predictive accuracy using standard Brier scoring. Strictly research and intelligence—zero wagering.
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Quadratic Brier Scoring
Trimmed-Mean Consensus
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Consensus Aggregation
Individual probability submissions are aggregated using trimmed mean and median algorithms to resist malicious manipulation and isolate collective intelligence.
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Brier Score Verification
Every resolved event is scored with the strictly proper quadratic Brier rule. Build an audited, transparent record of your forecasting accuracy over time.
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Research Subscriptions
Forecasting is always free. Subscriptions unlock all-time probability charts, calibration curves, full-resolution CSV data exports, and institutional dashboards.
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